Every day, one story that matters, broken down into three numbered scenarios, each with its own probability. Never fixed — it shifts as the situation changes.
Scénario
Sunday, sports
Ligue 1: Can French Football Survive the Collapse of Its TV Rights?
Published August 30, 2026
Share:
The question
After the collapse of TV rights and the ongoing decline in clubs' resources, will Ligue 1 find a stable economic model, muddle through at this reduced level, or see several clubs sink into financial trouble?
The facts
Every summer, Ligue 1 sells the right to broadcast its matches on television — with ticket sales and sponsors, one of the three pillars of clubs' budgets. Since the spectacular collapse of broadcaster Mediapro in 2020, that pillar has caved in: after a failed contract with Amazon and then with DAZN, which never topped 700,000 subscribers before leaving the league for a €100 million exit penalty, the French professional football league (LFP) ended up launching its own channel, Ligue 1+, in the summer of 2025.
A year on, the result still falls well short of pre-crisis levels. Domestic TV rights used to bring in roughly €500 million a season in the mid-2010s. For the 2025-2026 season, Ligue 1's 18 clubs shared just €80.5 million net — for the French champion, that works out to barely €12 to €18 million in domestic rights.
Context
TV money was the one revenue stream truly shared among all 18 clubs — unlike sponsors or ticket sales, which favor the biggest clubs first.
Ligue 1's TV rights are pooled*: every club, from the richest to the most modest, gets a share fixed in advance. For a mid-table or lower-table club, that share could account for up to half of its annual budget. PSG, by contrast, draws most of its revenue from sponsorship and European competitions, far less exposed to the crisis. The result: the collapse in TV rights hits hardest the clubs that depended on it most, not the richest ones.
Ligue 1+ did get off to a better start than DAZN: the channel passed one million subscribers within its very first month of the season, in September 2025. But a year later, it has plateaued around 1.1 million subscribers, slightly down in recent weeks according to several trade outlets — far short of the LFP's original business plan, which targeted 1.5 million subscribers and €320 million in revenue for this 2026-2027 season. Real forecasts have fallen to €170.1 million for the channel, topped up by international rights and France Télévisions, for a gross total of €412 million — of which only €184 million net remains once costs, solidarity payments to Ligue 2 and support for relegated clubs are deducted.
This long-running slide, on top of wage bills still sized for the old revenue level, has created what DNCG* chairman Jean-Marc Mickeler calls a "scissors effect." French professional football's operating deficit is set to top €1 billion again for the 2025-2026 season, despite average wage-bill cuts of 25%, and the structural deficit built up by Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 clubs combined now stands at €1.4 billion. One concrete case already shows how severe the punishment can get: in late June 2026, Girondins de Bordeaux — already administratively relegated* three times since 2021 — were excluded from all national competitions after failing to come up with the €9 million promised to the DNCG.
Where the money goes in Ligue 1: the biggest budgets, 2025-2026 season
1PSG — €850 millionBy far the league's biggest budget, driven by sponsorship and European rights — far less exposed to the domestic TV rights crisis.
2Olympique de Marseille — €260 millionA third of PSG's budget, but still the league's second-biggest, well ahead of the rest of the pack.
3AS Monaco — roughly €125-140 millionA special status that gives the club a financial breathing room rare in the league.
4OGC Nice — €120 millionThe last budget still clearly above the league average.
5Lille, Lyon, Rennes — roughly €110 million eachA sharp drop for Lyon, back down to this level after a season that was tough both on and off the pitch.
The result: the gap between PSG and the league's most modest clubs now reaches a factor of up to 34 — unprecedented in Ligue 1's recent history.
The money that's missing in France isn't missing everywhere in world sport: Gulf billions keep flowing into football, golf and boxing worldwide — we've covered a similar story on Saudi money in sport before, feel free to read our tracker for more. Nothing like that in Ligue 1, where the gap between PSG and the rest of the league keeps widening instead. That's why this story lends itself to three numbered scenarios: either Ligue 1+ finds a real economic model, or the situation muddles through at this reduced level, or several more clubs tip into financial trouble.
Ligue 1+ subscribers (August 2026)≈ 1.1 M Compared with 700,000 subscribers for DAZN at the same point in 2025
Domestic TV revenue (2026-2027 forecast)€170.1 M Compared with roughly €500 M a season in the mid-2010s
Favorable, stable or degraded
Can French football find a stable model?
What we're assessing
Does Ligue 1+ find a genuinely stable economic model? Does Ligue 1 muddle through at this reduced level? Or do several more clubs sink into financial trouble, unable to balance their books?
Favorable
20%
Unlikely
Ligue 1+ beats its subscriber target
By the end of the 2026-2027 season, Ligue 1+ passes 1.3 million subscribers, helped by a more aggressive commercial offer and a Saturday-night multiplex that finally finds its audience. A foreign partner buys the remaining international rights, pushing total revenue above €220 million. The clubs most dependent on the domestic market see their cash position stabilize, and the DNCG eases some of its wage-cap measures.
This is the least likely of the three scenarios: it assumes Ligue 1+ reverses, in a matter of months, a subscriber trajectory that has stagnated for a year, well below the original business plan. It remains more optimistic than the stable scenario, which simply extends the current trajectory, and above all than the degraded one, which starts from a fresh setback.
Indicators affected
Ligue 1+ subscribers≈ 1.3-1.5 M↑(vs 1.1 M, 2026)
Domestic TV revenue≈ €220-250 M↑(vs €170.1 M, 2026-2027)
The France angle
Better-funded clubs find it easier to recruit and keep their best young players, benefiting the quality of Ligue 1 and the French national team's talent pool. ↑ Leans favorable for France.
Stable
45%
Likely
Ligue 1+ grows, but doesn't close the gap
Ligue 1+ keeps growing slowly, around 1.2 to 1.3 million subscribers by the end of the 2026-2027 season, without reaching the 2 to 2.5 million threshold the LFP itself considers necessary for profitability. Domestic TV revenue holds around €170 to 190 million, far below the roughly €500 million of before the crisis. Clubs keep managing their books under already very tight constraints — wage caps, sales of academy-trained players — with no fresh wave of bankruptcies, but no real breathing room either.
This is the most likely of the three scenarios: it simply extends the trajectory already seen since Ligue 1+ launched — subscriber growth slowed but real, revenue stable but well below the original plan — requiring neither the favorable scenario's rebound nor the degraded scenario's open decline.
Indicators affected
Ligue 1+ subscribers≈ 1.2-1.3 M→(vs 1.1 M, 2026)
Domestic TV revenue≈ €170-190 M→(vs €170.1 M, 2026-2027)
The France angle
The league stays firmly below its pre-crisis standards, with fewer resources to develop and keep hold of talent — a gap that keeps widening with England's Premier League. ↓ Leans unfavorable for France.
Degraded
35%
Likely
Several clubs relegated over unbalanced books
Ligue 1+'s subscriber growth stalls, hurt by piracy competition and the absence of the biggest international fixtures — the 2026 World Cup rights went to beIN Sports, not the league's own channel. Domestic TV revenue falls back below €150 million. The DNCG, which already hasn't ruled out several administrative relegations, hands down at least one, and two to three more clubs fall under an emergency financial plan. The gap with PSG, whose budget already tops €800 million, widens further.
This scenario remains less likely than the stable one, since the LFP still has commercial levers left to avoid a fresh, sharp setback. But it's more likely than the favorable scenario: the structural deficit already measured by the DNCG (€1.4 billion accumulated) won't close in a single season, and the recent track record — Mediapro, then DAZN — shows this market has already disappointed twice in a row.
Indicators affected
Ligue 1+ subscribers< 1 M↓(vs 1.1 M, 2026)
Domestic TV revenue< €150 M↓(vs €170.1 M, 2026-2027)
The France angle
Fresh administrative relegations and budget restrictions would further weaken the French league's competitiveness, with a higher risk of top players leaving for other countries. ↓ Leans unfavorable for France.
Indicative orders of magnitude for the 3 scenarios above, estimated with the information available at publication and revised if the situation changes — never guaranteed forecasts. More on our method →
The essentials
Can French professional football find a stable economic model after the collapse of its TV rights?
Since Mediapro's collapse in 2020 and DAZN's departure in 2025, Ligue 1's domestic TV rights have been cut by more than a factor of five: clubs shared just €80.5 million net for the 2025-2026 season, against roughly €500 million a season before the crisis.
The most likely scenario (45%): Ligue 1+, the league's own channel, keeps growing slowly toward 1.2 to 1.3 million subscribers without ever reaching profitability, while clubs keep managing their books under very tight constraints, with no fresh wave of bankruptcies.
Signal to watch: Ligue 1+'s subscriber count when the international break resumes in November 2026, and the DNCG's rulings on clubs' projected accounts.
Fairly negative
Our assessment of the impact on France: fairly negative. The two most likely scenarios combined (80%, stable and degraded) keep or worsen a league that's already well below its pre-crisis funding level — only the favorable scenario (20%) would reverse that trajectory.
France's national league finance watchdog, which reviews professional clubs' accounts every summer and can impose financial or sporting sanctions.
Pooling (of TV rights)
The principle of splitting TV revenue among all clubs in the league according to a shared formula, rather than letting each club negotiate on its own with broadcasters.
Administrative relegation
A DNCG sanction that drops a club down a division for financial rather than sporting reasons, while keeping it within the federation.
