Every day, one story that matters, broken down into three numbered scenarios, each with its own probability. Never fixed — it shifts as the situation changes.
China has become the world's largest film market, but American studios have never carried less weight there — can Hollywood win back Chinese moviegoers, or has it lost access to this market for good?
For a long time, releasing a blockbuster in China was almost automatic for an American studio. Since February 22, 2026, China has even become, on a year-to-date basis, the world's largest film market by box-office revenue — overtaking North America for the first time in history. But that same China has nearly stopped watching American films: on its screens, local productions (comedies, dramas, animation) dominate the year, and only one foreign film has managed to break into the summer's top hits. Three players are fighting over access to this giant market: American studios (Disney, Sony, Universal, Warner…), who want to keep selling their films there; China's film regulator, the National Film Administration*, which decides who can release in theaters and when; and Chinese audiences themselves, whose tastes have shifted over the past decade.
The system governing this access has been in place since 2015: a quota of 34 foreign revenue-sharing films* allowed each year, up from just 20 before. That ceiling hasn't changed on paper. What has changed is the political climate around it: in April 2025, in the middle of Donald Trump's escalating tariffs on Chinese goods (up to 145%), the National Film Administration announced it would "moderately reduce" the number of American films imported — an openly acknowledged retaliatory measure, framed as the logical consequence of Chinese audiences falling out of love with American cinema.
Context
Two different mechanisms are pushing Hollywood out at the same time: a political decision, and a genuine shift in taste.
The first is a lever Beijing can tighten or loosen overnight: the quota, release approvals, tariff retaliation. The second is slower and deeper: for a decade, China's industry has been producing local comedies, animated films and dramas that are received better and better, and audiences have grown attached to them. Even if the trade war eased tomorrow, nothing guarantees Chinese moviegoers would flock back to American films.
The result is a two-speed market. In the first half of 2026, the Chinese box office plunged 40.6% compared to 2025, a market carried by a single megahit rather than genuine variety in releases. At the same time, China briefly overtook North America in cumulative global box-office rankings, that notable February 22. This wide gap — between a market retreating into itself and spectacular one-off peaks — is exactly what makes the next chapter of this story so uncertain.
The local share: two markets that have nothing in common
CNChina — a locked-down marketA quota of 34 foreign revenue-sharing films per year, with local productions (comedies, dramas, animation) capturing 81.9% of the 2025 box office on their own, according to the China Film Administration
FRFrance — an open market, no quotaNo ceiling on the number of foreign films distributed: in 2025, French films accounted for 37.9% of admissions, American films 34.9% — their lowest level since 1982 — and the rest of the world about 27%, according to the CNC
Two opposing logics: on one side, an administrative lock that mechanically caps the room left for foreign films, regardless of merit; on the other, a quota-free market where local cinema owes its dominant position only to its own films — and where, in 2025, it edged out American productions by just 3 points.
Worth clarifying: this 34-film quota doesn't specifically target American studios — it applies to every foreign country wanting to release a film in China with revenue sharing, so France is competing with the United States for those same slots. It does have one way around it, though: a Franco-Chinese co-production agreement signed in 2010 lets a film co-produced by both countries count as Chinese in China (so outside the quota) and as French in France (so eligible for CNC funding). A second channel also exists, unrelated to nationality: films bought outright at a flat fee, paid upfront regardless of their theatrical success, also bypass the 34 slots — but remain subject to an informal cap on the Chinese regulator's side, never publicly quantified.
This wide gap shows up even within a single summer: Spider-Man: Brand New Day opened in China on July 29, 2026, even before the United States, and remains the only foreign film to break into the top of the Chinese summer box office; at the same time, Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey gets a release on 20,000 Chinese screens, nearly all in IMAX, while other studios shun the market. These same two films, each topping 6 million admissions, are also driving the box-office recovery… in France, this summer. We'd been tracking that closely, see our edition on French cinema bouncing back and its updated tracking page. An identical symptom on both sides of the globe: it's the very biggest productions, built as events, that come out ahead — in China as in France — while the rest of the market stays under pressure.
The next real full-scale test arrives at year-end, with Avengers: Doomsday opening December 18, 2026 — a Marvel showdown we're already tracking closely elsewhere on the site, see our Spider-Man vs. Avengers tracking page. Its result in China will say a lot about Hollywood's ability to string together hits rather than land just one, in isolation.
That's why this story lends itself especially well to three numbered scenarios: either American studios regain ground by betting on event-scale megaproductions; or the current situation continues, access narrowed but never fully closed; or the trade standoff worsens to the point of putting China almost out of reach for most American films.
Annual quota of foreign revenue-sharing films34 ▲ fixed since 2015, under political pressure since April 2025
Revenue share paid to American studios≈25% ▲ vs nearly 50% in the North American market
Favorable, stable or degraded
Can Hollywood win China back?
What we're assessing
Do American studios regain ground by betting on event-scale megaproductions? Does the current access — narrowed but never fully closed — continue without really changing? Or does the trade standoff worsen to the point of putting China out of reach for most American films?
Favorable
30%
Likely
Blockbusters force the door open
Major studios stop targeting China with ordinary releases and concentrate their resources on a small number of megaproductions built for Chinese audiences. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, released in late July even before the US, shows the way: the only foreign film of the summer to break into the top of the Chinese box office. Christopher Nolan pushes the bet even further with The Odyssey, which gets a release on 20,000 Chinese screens, nearly all in IMAX. In this scenario, these standout hits multiply rather than stay exceptions: studios regain ground film by film, not release by release.
This is a middling scenario in probability, well behind stable: it assumes Beijing keeps granting generous slots to these megaproductions despite tariff tension, which nothing guarantees. Less likely than stable, which only requires a continuation of the current situation and no further move from Beijing. More likely, though, than degraded: unlike a fresh tariff escalation, which requires a further move from Beijing beyond what's already been announced, this scenario simply extends a megaproduction dynamic already at work this summer with Spider-Man and The Odyssey.
Indicators affected
Annual quota of foreign revenue-sharing films38↑(vs 34, 2015 baseline)
Revenue share paid to American studios≈30%↑(vs ≈25%, 2025 baseline)
The France angle
A genuine US-China thaw also benefits France, not just as diplomatic fallout: in this scenario, China's foreign-film quota widens (34 → 38, see indicator above) rather than tightening around American studios alone — meaning more slots, not fewer, for non-co-produced French films, which share this quota with the Americans. Co-produced films, for their part, stay outside the quota regardless of scenario, thanks to the 2010 Franco-Chinese agreement. ↑ Leans favorable for France.
Stable
45%
Likely
The door stays half-open
The status quo continues. China's quota stays fixed at 34 foreign revenue-sharing films a year, as it has since 2015, but fewer and fewer American studios use that slot to the fullest. Many ordinary American releases, outside the tentpole* category, remain shunned on the Chinese side or skipped on the studio side — one studio executive summed up the situation this summer by explaining that releasing a mid-budget film in China simply no longer pays off enough to be worth it. Only the very biggest productions, backed by a huge marketing budget, still justify the detour.
This is the most likely of the three scenarios, because it requires no political shift and no new trade rupture — just the continuation of a trend already in place since 2025. More likely than favorable, which assumes a real turnaround in the trade relationship. More likely too than degraded, which instead assumes a fresh, outright tariff escalation between Washington and Beijing.
Indicators affected
Annual quota of foreign revenue-sharing films34→(vs 34, 2015 baseline)
Revenue share paid to American studios≈25%→(vs ≈25%, 2025 baseline)
The France angle
Nothing really changes for the French: the 2010 Franco-Chinese co-production agreement keeps working independently of the Washington-Beijing standoff, with no extra cost for French productions targeting the Chinese market. ↑ Leans favorable for France.
Degraded
25%
Unlikely
The door swings shut
The trade war worsens and Beijing tightens access further. After promising as early as April 2025 to "moderately reduce" American imports in retaliation for Trump's tariffs, China concretely lowers the quota well below the current 34 films, or multiplies case-by-case release-permit denials. The already-low revenue share granted to American studios (about 25% of box-office takings, versus nearly half in the US) shrinks further, making China barely profitable even for a blockbuster. More and more studios choose, as some already did this summer, to simply give up on a Chinese release rather than absorb the costs.
This is the least likely of the three scenarios: less likely than stable, which only requires the existing tension to stagnate, but also slightly less likely than favorable, which merely extends a megaproduction dynamic already at work this summer. A further deterioration here assumes an additional move from Beijing, beyond what was already announced in April 2025 — more uncertain than a simple continuation of the status quo, even though the ongoing tariff escalation and the Chinese box office's 40.6% plunge in the first half of 2026 make this scenario far from negligible.
Indicators affected
Annual quota of foreign revenue-sharing films≈20↓(vs 34, 2015 baseline)
Revenue share paid to American studios≈18%↓(vs ≈25%, 2025 baseline)
The France angle
France isn't spared by a tightened Chinese quota: this quota (34 → ≈20 in this scenario) is shared among all foreign countries, not reserved for American studios — non-co-produced French films would therefore also have fewer available slots, like those of every other third country (Japan, South Korea, India…) sharing that same quota. Only films co-produced with China, outside the quota since the 2010 agreement, would stay sheltered. A fresh tariff escalation between the world's two largest economies would also weaken global trade as a whole, including French commercial interests in China and elsewhere. ↓ Leans unfavorable for France.
Indicative orders of magnitude for the 3 scenarios above, not guaranteed forecasts. More on our method →
The essentials
In the world's largest film market, can American studios regain ground, or are they losing it for good?
The real lock isn't just political: for a decade, Chinese audiences have grown attached to their own comedies, animated films and dramas, a lasting shift in taste that a simple trade thaw wouldn't be enough to erase. China's quota for foreign revenue-sharing films has stayed fixed at 34 a year since 2015 — a lever Beijing can tighten overnight, as announced as early as April 2025 in retaliation for Trump's tariffs — but even without it, fewer and fewer ordinary American films earn enough in China to justify the detour. The result: a Chinese box office that plunged 40.6% in the first half of 2026.
The most likely scenario (45%): access stays narrowed but never fully closed, with only a handful of megaproductions like Spider-Man or The Odyssey continuing to break through, with neither real improvement nor further deterioration.
Signal to watch: any official National Film Administration announcement on the 2027 quota, and the Chinese results of the next big year-end American releases (Avatar: Fire and Ash, Avengers: Doomsday in December).
Fairly positive
Our assessment of the impact on France: fairly positive. The two most likely scenarios (75% combined, favorable and stable) cost France nothing: its films co-produced with China stay outside the quota* in both cases thanks to the 2010 Franco-Chinese agreement, and the number of slots for non-co-produced French films doesn't shrink in either case either (34 films unchanged in stable, 38 in favorable). Only the degraded scenario (25%), the least likely of the three, would pull the score negative: the tightened quota (≈20 films, shared among all countries) there also reduces slots for non-co-produced French films, on top of the risk of a broader tariff escalation.
Foreign films allowed to release in Chinese theaters in exchange for a percentage of box-office revenue, capped at 34 a year since 2015 — the channel used by nearly all imported American films.
National Film Administration
China's state regulator that decides which foreign films can release in theaters, how many, and when — and which announced in 2025 that it wanted to reduce American imports.
Co-production agreement (Franco-Chinese)
A treaty signed in 2010 between France and China that lets a film co-produced by both countries be treated as a fully Chinese work, outside the quota imposed on foreign films.
Tentpole
In studio jargon, a very large event-scale production (sequel, franchise, superhero film) whose commercial success is expected, on its own, to carry a large share of the studio's results for the year.
