Every day, one story that matters, broken down into three numbered scenarios, each with its own probability. Never fixed — it shifts as the situation changes.
Scénario
Sunday, sport
Basketball: The NBA Lands in Europe
Publié le 20 septembre 2026
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The question at hand
The NBA is launching its European league in 2027: can the Euroleague negotiate an alliance, or will it be sidelined?
The facts
European basketball is organizing itself around two heavyweights that aren't playing in the same league — literally. On one side, the NBA, the major North American league, which wants to set up its own competition in Europe. On the other, the Euroleague, the historic competition that already brings together the continent's biggest clubs, from Madrid to Istanbul. In between, FIBA, the international basketball federation, has sided with the NBA to back the European project. NBA commissioner Adam Silver has been repeating for months that his league will launch no matter what, with or without the Europeans.
On September 16, 2026, Silver confirmed that NBA Europe would indeed kick off in 2027. The plan calls for 16 teams, including 12 permanent franchises based in cities like Paris, Madrid, Munich or London, plus 4 qualifying spots renewed each season. Bids for those 12 permanent slots have exceeded expectations: some offers reach $500 million to $1 billion per city, according to the NBA itself. The message is clear — the league already has the financial firepower to move forward, with or without a prior agreement.
Meanwhile, the Euroleague isn't sitting idle. It's preparing its own response: expanding to 24 teams, with a new long-term franchise model meant to secure its future. Eleven candidates have already submitted firm bids, with a combined value close to €700 million in entry fees. The final decision is due at the end of September 2026, just days after this edition. The competition is betting on this expansion to prove it remains a solid partner, not simply a weakened rival up against American money.
The tension stems from a clash of economic models. The NBA runs on closed franchises*: once a club secures its spot, it can never be relegated, even after poor sporting results. The Euroleague, meanwhile, still keeps a more open system, inherited from the classic European model where national leagues and continental competitions are intertwined. Moving to a franchise model changes the sporting logic itself: on-court performance matters less than the financial strength of the owner. It's this shift that the big clubs courted by both sides are negotiating — or rejecting.
Understanding it
The real clash isn't just financial, it's structural: two opposing ways of organizing a sports competition are colliding.
In the NBA, a purchased franchise stays in the league for life, even if it loses every game. In Europe, the classic model is built on sporting merit, with national leagues intertwined with continental competitions. The Euroleague's 24-team project, with its €700 million bids, already looks like a compromise between these two logics: preserving a bit of sporting tradition while securing investors' money over the long term.
The French case illustrates this shift well. PSG, through its owner QSI, has submitted a bid to secure the Paris franchise of NBA Europe, going head-to-head with the project backed by Metropolitans 92. The entry fee initially discussed was around €500 million, though that figure could be revised. PSG, already a central player in French football, is thus also looking to make its mark in basketball business — a sign that investment logic now extends well beyond a single sport for the major groups that own clubs.
This situation opens onto three very different outcomes, which is why we're tracking three distinct scenarios. Either the NBA and the Euroleague find common ground and build an alliance that benefits both, or they each move forward on their own without a global agreement, in a tense but not fully broken coexistence, or the negotiation fails outright and the NBA imposes its terms by taking the richest clubs, which would gut the Euroleague of its substance. Euroleague representative Chus Bueno summed up the European position in early September: a partnership has to work for both sides, not just one. Whether the NBA truly shares that view remains to be seen.
Understanding it
The Euroleague already went through a major split more than twenty years ago, and that memory still weighs on the current negotiations.
In 2000, several major European clubs left the competition organized by FIBA to create their own league, which became today's Euroleague. This schism* resembles what the Euroleague fears today when facing the NBA: that the richest clubs will leave to build their own competition, leaving the rest with a weakened showcase.
Combined value of Euroleague franchise bids≈€700M eleven candidates, data as of September 1, 2026
Estimated entry fee for an NBA Europe franchise$500M to $1B per target city, bidding closed end of June 2026
Favorable, stable, or degraded
NBA Europe contre Euroleague : alliance ou rapport de force ?
What we're assessing
FavorableLa NBA et l'Euroleague signent une alliance qui combine argent américain et ancrage sportif européen.
StableLes deux ligues avancent chacune de leur côté, sans rupture ni accord global.
DégradéLa négociation échoue et la NBA récupère les plus grands clubs européens, affaiblissant durablement l'Euroleague.
Favorable
30%
Likely
The NBA and the Euroleague Sign a Joint Partnership
In this scenario, the NBA and the Euroleague reach a formal agreement before or shortly after the American league launches in 2027. In practice, this could take the form of co-organized competitions, or a commercial partnership splitting TV rights and revenue between the two organizations. Candidate clubs, such as PSG in Paris or Real Madrid, would no longer have to pick a side: they could play within a shared framework, without a scheduling war or an organized exodus of top players toward a single system.
This scenario remains a minority outcome compared with the other two because it assumes a compromise that neither the NBA nor the Euroleague has yet shown any real willingness to make. Adam Silver has been repeating for months that his league will move forward with or without an agreement, which reflects a balance of power already tilted in his favor. A genuinely balanced alliance would require the NBA to give up part of its control, and nothing in its recent statements suggests that, unlike the stable scenario where each side simply carries on without necessarily clashing head-on.
Indicators affected
Valeur des offres de franchise Euroleague≈700 M€↑renforcée par l'accord, potentiellement +20 à 30 %
Ticket d'entrée franchise NBA Europe500 M$ à 1 Md$→stabilisé, l'accord réduit l'incertitude sur les valorisations
The France anglePSG would secure its franchise within a secure framework, without fear of seeing the Euroleague and the NBA wage a scheduling war that would undermine its investment. ↑ Rather favorable for France.
Stable
45%
Fairly likely
The Two Leagues Move Forward Separately, Without a Deal
Here, NBA Europe launches in 2027 as planned, with its 12 permanent franchises potentially including Paris, while the Euroleague separately confirms its expansion to 24 teams by the end of September 2026. The two competitions coexist without any official link between them. Big clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona or Bayern Munich then try to play both sides for as long as possible, negotiating separately with each organization to avoid closing off any financial door.
This is the most likely scenario because it doesn't require either side to give up anything right away: each moves forward on its own timeline, without an immediate confrontation. Unlike the favorable scenario, it doesn't require a structural compromise, and unlike the downside scenario, it doesn't yet mean a massive, definitive departure of top clubs toward a single system. It's a coexistence by default, in the absence of a decisive move from either side.
Indicators affected
Valeur des offres de franchise Euroleague≈700 M€→stable, les candidats maintiennent leurs offres malgré l'incertitude
Ticket d'entrée franchise NBA Europe500 M$ à 1 Md$→maintenu, les 12 villes cibles confirment leurs enchères initiales
The France anglePSG and Metropolitans 92 continue competing for the Paris franchise, with no certainty over which of the two leagues will offer the more stable long-term framework. ↓ Rather unfavorable for France.
Degraded
25%
Unlikely
The NBA Recruits the Biggest Clubs on Its Own, the Euroleague Weakens
In this scenario, negotiations collapse entirely and the NBA imposes its league by signing directly with the richest clubs, such as Real Madrid, Barcelona or PSG. These clubs then leave the Euroleague to join the American competition, drawn in by entry fees that sometimes top a billion dollars. The Euroleague suddenly loses its most valuable franchises and much of its commercial worth, estimated at €4.3 billion by 2027 according to a JB Capital projection.
This scenario remains the least likely of the three because it assumes an abrupt break that neither the NBA nor the big clubs have an interest in triggering too quickly: losing its European sporting roots would come at a heavy cost in credibility, even for the American league. Unlike the stable scenario, it involves clubs making a definitive choice for one side only, and unlike the favorable scenario, no shared bridge remains. The precedent of 2000, when the Euroleague itself split from FIBA, shows that this kind of schism remains possible but leaves lasting scars.
Indicators affected
Valeur des offres de franchise Euroleague≈700 M€↓en chute, plusieurs candidats se retirant faute de grands clubs restants
Ticket d'entrée franchise NBA Europe500 M$ à 1 Md$↑en hausse, la rareté des grandes villes encore disponibles fait grimper les enchères
The France anglePSG would likely secure its NBA Europe franchise, but at the cost of French basketball being cut off from the historic European competition and its neighboring clubs. ↓ Rather unfavorable for France.
Ordres de grandeur indicatifs pour les 3 scénarios ci-dessus, estimés avec l'information disponible à la publication et réévalués si la situation change — jamais des prévisions garanties. Learn more about our method →
Key takeaways
Caught between the NBA's financial power and its own expansion plans, can the Euroleague still negotiate as an equal, or does it risk being sidelined as early as 2027?
The NBA confirmed on September 16, 2026 the launch of its European league in 2027, with franchise bids sometimes exceeding $1 billion per city, while the Euroleague is aiming for 24 teams with €700 million in bids already submitted.
No, not really in a position of strength: the most likely scenario (45%) is a tense coexistence without a global agreement, with the NBA moving forward alone if necessary, and the Euroleague securing a balanced alliance in only 30% of cases.
Signal to watch: the Euroleague owners' meeting expected on September 30, 2026 to approve or reject the expansion to 24 teams, and the official announcements regarding the Paris franchise of NBA Europe.
Fairly negative
Our assessment of the impact for France: fairly negative.with a 45% chance of a tense coexistence and a 25% chance of a break that would cut PSG off from the historic European ecosystem, only the 30% favorable scenario fully benefits French basketball, leaving France exposed to lasting uncertainty over its sporting foothold.
Si tu devais retenir 1 chose
Les offres pour une franchise NBA Europe ont dépassé 1 milliard de dollars par ville, tandis que l'Euroleague ne réunit encore que 700 millions d'euros d'engagements pour son expansion à 24 équipes.
A model in which a club, once purchased, stays in the league for good, with no risk of relegation even after poor sporting results — the opposite of the classic European model based on sporting merit.
Schism
An organized break between two factions within the same organization, here referring to the 2000 split between the Euroleague and FIBA, which gave rise to the current competition.
