European defense: can Europe manage without the United States?

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The facts

Since the end of World War II, the security of the European continent has rested on a historic military alliance with Washington. European nations, united within the European Union and NATO, have long delegated a vital share of their protection to the US military. But amid rising geopolitical tensions and political uncertainties in the United States, an urgent question now confronts leaders across the continent: can Europe defend itself against foreign threats, first and foremost Russia? Answering this challenge goes far beyond mere statements of principle, as making up for a potential withdrawal by the world’s leading military power would require colossal resources.

Gauging the scale of the challenge begins with national budgets. According to benchmark economic analyses published by Bruegel and the Kiel Institute, replacing all US forces and equipment deployed to protect Europe would require adding roughly €250 billion a year to current military spending. For European countries as a whole, that would mean raising defense spending from 2.1% to nearly 3.5% of GDP. In concrete terms, such a shift would force Germany to increase its annual military budget from €80 billion to €140 billion, a dramatic surge that upends traditional fiscal balances.

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Faced with this reality, European capitals have begun responding institutionally and financially. On May 27, 2025, the European Union officially adopted the SAFE instrument*, a €150 billion joint loan facility designed to finance pooled military equipment purchases among member states. Soon after, on June 25, 2025, at the Hague summit, allied nations set an ambitious goal by pledging to raise their overall defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Germany even amended its constitution in March 2025, lifting its debt brake* for all military expenditures exceeding 1% of GDP.

Yet defending a continent is not just about writing checks or passing budget laws. While money can purchase weapons, European factories face a severe shortage of industrial capacity to quickly produce thousands of armored vehicles, missiles, or millions of large-caliber artillery shells. According to the IISS think tank, simply replacing conventional US military equipment would cost between $226 billion and $344 billion. On top of these massive financial sums come shortages of qualified military personnel, with experts estimating that at least 300,000 additional professional soldiers would need to be recruited and trained to offset the absence of regular US troops on European soil.

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The hardest bottleneck to overcome remains technical, technological, and strategic. European militaries rely heavily on Washington for satellite intelligence, advanced airborne surveillance, heavy logistical transport, and the integrated command* of large-scale operations. What is more, the continent’s ultimate security guarantee has rested for decades on the US nuclear umbrella*. While France and the United Kingdom maintain independent nuclear arsenals, their national doctrines do not automatically cover all of Eastern Europe’s borders with the same level of commitment as the US apparatus.

The outcome of this massive rearmament effort remains uncertain, as it hinges as much on governments’ political will as on the strength of national defense industries. Do the twenty-seven EU member states share the same vision of security priorities, or will economic rifts hold back joint investments? To shed light on this historic crossroads reshaping our continent’s strategic autonomy*, our newsroom has modeled three detailed forward-looking scenarios, ranging from a successful autonomous European defense pillar to critical vulnerability in the event of a sudden US withdrawal.