Every day, one story that matters, broken down into three numbered scenarios, each with its own probability. Never fixed — it shifts as the situation changes.
Scénario
Saturday, Culture
Global Cinema: Can It Survive Streaming?
Published August 29, 2026
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The question
Studios have set a new common rule: 45 days of theatrical exclusivity before streaming. The global box office is aiming for its best year since 2019, but major theater chains remain deep in debt, and younger audiences increasingly prefer to wait for streaming. Will this truce be enough to save theaters for good?
The facts
Every year, the film industry faces the same question: can movie theaters stay the first place audiences discover a film, against ever more powerful streaming platforms? Three camps are pulling in different directions. The major studios (Disney, Universal, Warner, Paramount, Netflix…) make the films and decide where, when and how to release them. Theater chains (AMC and Cineworld/Regal in the US, CGR, Pathé and UGC in France…) live off ticket and popcorn sales, not subscriptions. And audiences, especially younger ones, have gotten used to waiting comfortably at home rather than paying for a ticket.
In 2026, the balance of power has tilted back toward theaters. The global theatrical box office is aiming for $34.7 billion in revenue this year, its best performance since 2019, according to research firm Gower Street Analytics. To protect that momentum, Disney, Universal and Paramount Skydance agreed this spring on a common rule: keep every film in exclusive theatrical release* for at least 45 days before any streaming release or paid video-on-demand* (VOD). A real break from the post-Covid years, when that exclusivity window had fallen to barely 17-30 days, down from 90 days before 2020.
But this common rule hides real differences from one studio to the next — and Netflix, the biggest distributor in the world, isn't part of it at all.
Theatrical exclusivity window before streaming, by studio (2026)
1Disney — by far the longestAbout 57 days on average before paid on-demand release in 2025; some major tentpoles, like "Avatar: Fire and Ash," exceed 90 days.
2Paramount Skydance — 45 daysA commitment made publicly by CEO David Ellison at the CinemaCon trade show in spring 2026.
3Universal — 45 days, and soon moreUp from a 17-day paid-rental window tested in late 2025; the studio plans to move to seven weekends of exclusivity (about 49 days) starting in 2027.
4Netflix — 0 days, or close to itThe overwhelming majority of its films go straight to streaming, with no theatrical run. One-off exception: a limited IMAX release planned for "Narnia: The Magician's Nephew."
The upshot: the "45-day rule" looks less like a single agreement than a common floor, with every studio free to go further — or, for Netflix, to stay out of it entirely.
This studio hardline stems from a still-recent shock. Between 2020 and 2021, theaters closed by the pandemic forced an explosion of direct-to-streaming releases, with exclusivity windows falling to almost nothing. The global box office had collapsed to $12 billion in 2020, down from $42.3 billion the year before. Since then, the recovery has been gradual: $21.4 billion in 2021, $25.9 billion in 2022, then a real rebound to $33.9 billion in 2023. But that dollar figure doesn't tell the whole story.
Context
A record box office in dollars doesn't mean cinema has won back all of its pre-2020 audience.
Ticket prices rise every year, pushed up by premium formats like IMAX. A growing global box office can therefore mask fewer moviegoers who are simply paying more. Even with $34.7 billion targeted for 2026, global revenue is still 18% below its 2019 record — and the number of tickets sold is probably even further behind. The same mechanism applies to a streaming subscription: its revenue sometimes climbs only because the price climbs, not the audience.
The revenue rebound hasn't erased the financial fragility of the major theater chains, though. AMC, the world's largest exhibitor, was still carrying nearly $4 billion in debt at the end of 2025. Since then, the chain has refinanced part of that debt and pushed its next maturities out to 2029, helped by record revenue and EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026. Cineworld, which owns Regal in the US (the world's No. 2), had emerged from US bankruptcy (Chapter 11*) in July 2023 after wiping out nearly $4.5 billion in debt, and had to restructure again in late 2024. Even a strong box office isn't always enough to pay down debt piled up during the shutdown years.
Audiences, for their part, haven't fully made up their minds. According to an AP-NORC Center survey from late August 2025, 32% of US adults stream a recent film at least once a month, compared with only 16% who go to the movies that often. Adults under 45 do both more often than their elders, without necessarily giving up on theaters. Netflix, for its part, openly stays out of the 45-day movement: the platform keeps sending most of its original films straight to streaming, reserving theatrical releases for its biggest event titles.
This global trend also shows up in France, where 2026 is shaping up to be the best year for theaters since 2019: the exhibitors' federation (FNCF) projects 190 million admissions for the year, up from 156.8 million in 2025. It's a rebound we had already seen taking shape this summer — see our edition on the comeback of French cinema and its tracking page, updated in late August. This French momentum stays tied to the same global tug-of-war between American studios and streaming — the same one that also, for example, determines blockbuster access to the Chinese market (read it here). That's why this story lends itself to three numbered scenarios: either the 45-day deal holds and gets longer; or it holds as is, a fragile but stable balance; or a major studio breaks it, and the windows close again.
Global box office (2026, forecast)$34.7B Vs $42.3B in 2019 — still -18% in value
Theatrical exclusivity window (2026 standard)45 days Vs 90 days before 2020, 17-30 days in 2021-2022
Global box office, 2019-2026 (in billions of dollars)
Eight years later, global theatrical revenue is approaching its pre-pandemic record without quite catching it yet.
Global theatrical revenue, in current billions of dollars. 2026: mid-year forecast, not final (year still in progress as of August 29, 2026). Source: Gower Street Analytics — see Sources at the bottom of the edition.
Favorable, stable or degraded
Will the deal between theaters and streaming hold?
What we're assessing
Does the 45-day deal between studios and theaters hold, and get even longer? Does it stay exactly as it is, with no further progress? Or does a major studio break it, reopening the door to near-immediate streaming releases?
Favorable
30%
Likely
The 45-day deal holds and gets longer
By the end of 2027, the 45-day deal holds across all the major US studios, and Universal has rolled out its new seven-weekend exclusivity rule (about 49 days), as announced for that date. Other studios gradually fall in line with this longer window. Carried by a packed slate of blockbusters, the global box office tops $37 billion for the year, its best total since 2019. The major theater chains, AMC leading the way, use this extended exclusivity to shore up their finances and slow the wave of closures of recent years.
This is the least likely of the three scenarios: it assumes no studio gives in to the temptation of shortening its window to boost a struggling streaming platform — something that has already happened before. It stays more optimistic than the stable scenario, which requires no further extension, and especially than the degraded one, which starts from an open break in the deal.
The France angle
Major French chains (CGR, Pathé, UGC) benefit from extended access to the biggest American films before they hit streaming, reinforcing a 2026 that's already a record year for French theaters. ↑ Leans favorable for France.
Stable
45%
Likely
The 45-day deal holds, but goes no further
The deal holds overall, but no studio goes further than the 45 days already in place — including Universal, which pushes back its move to seven weekends. The global box office settles between $34 and $36 billion, without catching up to the 2019 level. Netflix keeps sending most of its films straight to streaming, without joining the deal. The major theater chains manage their debt without a new crisis, but without real relief either.
This is the most likely of the three scenarios: it simply extends the fragile compromise already in place since spring 2026, requiring neither the coordinated push of the favorable scenario nor the open break of the degraded one — the default outcome once no player has an immediate reason to move.
The France angle
The current pace — already the best year for French theaters since 2019 — continues without a break, which benefits exhibitors and the funding of French cinema through the ticket tax (TSA)*. ↑ Leans favorable for France.
Degraded
25%
Unlikely
A studio breaks ranks, windows shrink again
A major studio in financial trouble breaks the 45-day deal, cutting its exclusivity window below 20-25 days to boost its own streaming platform — a scenario already seen between 2020 and 2022. Other studios follow suit for fear of losing ground, and the common floor crumbles. The global box office falls back below $30 billion, a sharp setback after the 2025-2026 rebound. Already-fragile chains like AMC or Cineworld/Regal have to renegotiate their debt again, and theater closures speed up.
This scenario remains less likely than the stable one, since it assumes a studio accepts the risk of durably alienating exhibitors, its own distribution partners. But it's more likely than the favorable one: the 45-day deal is only a few months old, and nothing guarantees it survives a studio's first major financial crisis.
The France angle
Shorter windows would weaken French theaters in the middle of their momentum, and threaten ticket-tax revenue that funds a large share of French cinema through the CNC. ↓ Leans unfavorable for France.
Indicative orders of magnitude for the 3 scenarios above, estimated with the information available at publication and revised if the situation changes — never guaranteed forecasts. More on our method →
The essentials
Can movie theaters keep holding their ground against streaming?
The global theatrical box office is targeting $34.7 billion in 2026, its best year since 2019, driven by an unprecedented agreement among studios to keep every film in exclusive theatrical release for 45 days before streaming.
The most likely scenario (45%): the 45-day deal holds exactly as is, with no further progress, and the global box office plateaus between $34 and $36 billion, without catching up to the 2019 level.
Signal to watch: Universal's announced move to seven weekends of exclusivity (about 49 days) planned for 2027, and the year-end financial results of the major theater chains (AMC, Cineworld/Regal).
Fairly positive
Our assessment of the impact on France: fairly positive. The two most likely scenarios combined (75%, favorable and stable) extend the best year for French theaters since 2019 — only the degraded scenario (25%), which would break the window deal, would threaten that momentum.
The minimum number of days a film stays reserved for movie theaters before it can be released on streaming or paid video-on-demand.
Transactional VOD
Renting or buying a recent film individually on a platform, paid for on top of a subscription — as opposed to a film simply added to a standard streaming subscription's catalog.
Chapter 11
The US bankruptcy procedure that lets an indebted company keep operating while renegotiating its debts with creditors.
TSA (French cinema ticket tax)
A levy on every ticket sold in France, which funds a large share of public support for cinema through the CNC.
