Hollywood: Is the Sequel Model Hitting Its Limit?

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The facts

A single film, Spider-Man: Brand New Day — the sequel to the Spider-Man/Avengers showdown we already covered (read our article) — grossed $2.2 billion worldwide in 2026 and already holds the record for the biggest launch in history ($360 million in a single weekend in the US). At the same time, three other mega-budget sequels — Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, Masters of the Universe, and Supergirl — failed at the box office, each costing over $150 million without breaking even. Even Avatar: Fire and Ash, from the most profitable franchise* in cinema history, only grossed about $1.45 billion worldwide — a third less than the previous film in the saga, released three years earlier. The system of sequels, spin-offs*, and reboots* that has driven Hollywood for twenty years is showing its first visible cracks this year.

Since 2010, sequels, remakes, and prequels have occupied eight to ten spots on the annual list of the biggest US box office hits — nine out of ten still in 2024. In 2026, that number dropped to five out of ten: two completely original, ultra-low-budget films, Obsession (less than $1 million invested) and Backrooms, each surpassed $300 million in global revenue, driven by word of mouth rather than a big studio marketing campaign. A musical biopic, Michael, and a sci-fi novel adaptation, Project Hail Mary, round out this unusual podium of films without sequels or expanded universes.

The three largest US studios are not reacting the same way to these signals. Universal continues to roll out sequels and horror films, its annual CinemaCon* presentation to exhibitors still entirely focused on these types of films. Disney has locked in eleven sequels and live-action remakes through 2029, including Avengers: Secret Wars and Frozen 3, without slowing down despite this year's failures. Warner Bros., weakened a year earlier by its $110B mega-merger with Discovery (detailed in our article, read more), conversely touts an

Here's how each of the three biggest US players is reacting to the same warning signs, studio by studio:

The problem is not that Universal and Disney are ignoring the warning signs: it's that they are betting on their ability to absorb individual failures through volume and a few very big successes, rather than changing their approach.

The weakness is not limited to the US audience, either. We already told the story of how Hollywood is losing ground to local cinema in China, long its second-biggest market worldwide (read our article): major US franchises are also declining there, replaced by successful Chinese productions. A model designed to dominate a homogeneous global market is thus running out of steam on several fronts at once, not just in front of a US audience tired of sequels.

For French cinema, this Hollywood stumble has an unexpected effect. Over the whole of 2025, French films captured 37.9% of the box office, compared to 34.9% for American films — their lowest level since 1982. In the first five months of 2026, the gap narrowed further (44.4% vs. 45%). The French system, where the CNC* funds part of national cinema through advance on receipts* regardless of expected box office success alone, leaves room for original films that the purely commercial Hollywood system increasingly reserves less of. France also has its own franchises (Asterix, Kaamelott), but they weigh far less in its box office than American franchises do in theirs.